Monday, March 19, 2012

What if one day drop the iPhone?

It's true: the Nasdaq 100 shoots. Flirts with 3,000 points and he does a very good start and good background. And if you do, basically, is that Apple will cover their backs. The feeling is unanimous: erased from the memory stick earlier this century, the U.S. technology and are postulated as a safe haven. Who seeks security, invest in Microsoft, Google, in the upcoming actions of Facebook or Apple. Spanish analysts have it clear. "This is a good opportunity to buy technology," says Nicholas Waterman, chief investment officer of Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management. "All the Nasdaq is advisable," he confirms José Manzanares, a professor at the Institute of Securities Studies (IEB) and director of Capital EAFI Skipper.

Although they all agree on that aspect, that does not mean things will get out shot as always. It outlines some problems with the world of technology. Namely, this is too many of Apple in the Nasdaq 100. The signing of the block already has a 17% volume of the index, a fact that contradicts the most basic investing rules: security is diversification.

What will happen if sales of the iPhone or iPad collapse from one day to the other, they ask analysts. ¿Will last the index then?

"Apple gives you plenty of brightness to the index," says Alejandro Vidal, Department of Banking Market Strategies March. "It is therefore an investment opportunity. However, it is also a risk, because their relative weight is excessive." "The problem with Apple, and especially of its smartphone , which adds five years is monopolizing a large market share, he adds Celso Otero, fund manager at Renta 4 -. But this has happened before. At the time, Motorola was number one. And so was Nokia. And even BlackBerry, much as his leadership had been shorter. That's where fears arise. Will the iPhone lead the future as well as this is leading? ".

The truth is that the weight of the iPhone and the Apple iPad is as intense as the weight of Apple in the Nasdaq 100. The cast is disproportionate. iPhone accounts for 43.5% of Apple's revenue. The iPad tablet, 20% computers, 20%. IPods have lost strength: now account for 7% of their income. "Among the top three account for 83.5% of Apple's revenue, says Otero. If one of these three legs, and especially if it fails iPhone, the project could falter ...".

In media and economic terms, the iPhone has been overwhelming effect. In 2007, a year after its release, the company entered the block $ 630 million annually through sales of iPhone. Now the figure is around 47,060 million ...

Through this flood of data, speech leads to a domino effect. If sales plummet iPhone and iPad (no mistake, it seems unthinkable in the near future) sales slump Apple. And if Apple falls, with 17% in volume in the Nasdaq 100 (worth 72,000 million dollars in 2007, when she weighed 2%, total about 500,000 million today), the index would plunge, much as The following companies are listed as definitive as Microsoft, Oracle, Intel and Qualcomm.

"It's true: it may be that some day the iPhone fall. And if that happened, it would be because there have been a smartphone best-Otero says, a product that would take him ahead. It is also true that the emergence of this new firm could revitalize the index: a new smartphone would have replaced the old. What happens is that the revitalization takes time. does not happen overnight. And in that process, the index had been deflating. " "The Nasdaq raises doubts as such me because of the high weighting of Apple," he insists Vidal.

"Still, this is not a bubble. It has nothing to do with the prick of 2000," interjects Manzanares. Refers to overestimates of the time, early in this century: at that time, Apple was trading 60 times its actual value. "It was total speculation," said Otero. Today, its price remains high, although much closer to its real value: about 12.5%.

Broadly speaking, apart from vagaries of fashion, the future is promising index. "This is one of the least evolved Barquero says. It is global in nature, is present in developed countries and is well exposed in emerging countries. This is one of the fastest growing sectors of benefits."

"All the Nasdaq is advisable," he insists Manzanares. Among other reasons, because the crisis has not beaten the mobile telephony, sales have continued to grow, and that is a global phenomenon. There are iPhone in the U.S., there are in New Delhi and is in Dakar.


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